Week 13 - What Went Wrong?

As of now, only 4 teams are completely out of the playoff picture: Paul Kim, Rich Kim, David Kim, and Simon Kim (a curse on Kims? Only Jung can break that curse this year. If Jung and Jon don't make playoffs, it would be ridiculous because Jon is from the Kim clan as well).

Let's go back and see where things went wrong for these teams, starting with the most obvious:

12. Simon Kim
What happened?: A risk, a rape, and a ridiculous regular season schedule
Simon started off the draft with a questionable move: Kamara over McCaffrey? Kamara has never reached the volumes CMC has and while he's been a very fun runner to watch, there always seemed to be a ceiling on his potential. But he really went all in on the risky plays when he drafted AB and Gurley in the next two rounds. If all things broke right, he had 3 first rounders on his roster. Well, things didn't come close to breaking right. Brown got accused of rape. Gurley found out he's on a team with the worst QB not named Trubisky. Josh Gordon gets caught up in a horrific on-field injury and the hopes of a comeback season go down the drain. But all of this couldn't prepare him for the schedule he was about to face. Every team that faced him seem to have their best week against him. Let's take a look:
Dan: 1st and 2nd best scoring weeks (143.62, 134.1)
Jung: 4th (103.96)
David Y: 2nd (128.94)
Jon: 4th (123)
Biggie: 2nd (129.16)
Cho: 1st (125.6)
Mike: 2nd (109.32)
Eric: 6th (124.78) [thanks for treating me like all other teams]
David K: 2nd (104.44)
Chris: 3rd (121.42)
Paul: 4th (93.74)
It's like everyone's team prepped extra hard just to play Simon.

11. David K
What happened?: Wasted 1st rounder + 3 backs flirting with greatness
David started with one of the most questionable moves on draft day: making Davante the first receiver off the board. That's the easy decision to criticize. The issues he had at running back weren't really his fault (although, I guess he could have consolidated the potential of 2 of them into 1 solid back). Josh Jacobs looked great in week 1 but his streakiness made him hard to trust on a week to week basis. Some weeks he looked like a top 5 back; others he looked like he shouldn't even be started. But sadly, this was David's best option in the backfield. Mixon struggled all season on a team that still hasn't won a game and Mack's flakiness can be attributed to nagging injuries and stacked boxes due to the absence of Luck. All 3 of the backs were rated in the top 24 coming in to the season but none of them materialized into a true RB1.

10. Biggie
What happened?: Steelers, Browns, and Rams offenses implode
Take a look at Biggie's first 8 picks:

1.	(8)	James Conner (Pit - RB)
2.	(17)	JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit - WR)
3.	(32)	Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
4.	(41)	Brandin Cooks (LAR - WR)
5.	(56)	Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR)
6.	(65)	Baker Mayfield (Cle - QB)
7.	(80)	Will Fuller V (Hou - WR)
8.	(89)	David Njoku (Cle - TE)

6 of his top 8 were players on the 3 teams mentioned above. Unfortunately for him:
1) Roethlisberger gets hurt for the season, tanking the entire Steelers offense. On top of that, Conner deals with injuries all season
2) Goff showed us that last year's Super Bowl was more indicative of his talents and that the regular season was mostly due to a solid o-line and superhuman Gurley. Goff looks like he did his rookie year and everyone in LA is reading the details of his $134 million dollar contract
3) Cleveland could never live up to the hype they had during the offseason but Baker really struggled against solid competition this season. He showed that he's more Ryan Fitzpatrick than Drew Brees and Njoku still has bricks tied to his hands

9: Paul
What happened? Slow start to season and a few key injuries
Paul is probably one of the unluckier ones this season as he didn't do too much wrong. Sure, he may have reached on Melvin and Michel but overall he didn't have too many bad picks. Cam was seen as a solid value pick that late, he had 2 stud receivers to carry him through most matchups, and Vance was supposed to be the Steelers latest receiving weapon that developed into a fantasy stud. Well, through the first 7 weeks, he was only able to muster 83 points a game. Hill missed a few unplanned weeks, Melvin missed a few planned weeks, and Cam missed the rest of the season a few games in. Now that he's moved past those injuries, his team is actually looking pretty solid. He's averaging over 99 ppg in the last 5 weeks, going 3-2. But that miserable start was too much to overcome, needing a perfect last 6 weeks to make the playoffs.

Don't forget to fill out the survey: https://forms.gle/T3uavxQDzEWH1HZk6

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good luck to all!

Simon

Week 12 - State of the League Survey

It's finally here!

I'll be using the results of this survey to shape the rules and structure for the league for the next 5-10 years. Please only fill it out once! It shouldn't take you longer than 10 minutes to complete the whole thing.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfz4WAvCqjzIoIpPlxj8CKbBaO35cAdyQ7qObVdCQGoj8c8xQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

Please take some time over the weekend or the holidays to fill it out. Thanks in advance for participating.

And as always, good luck this week!

Simon

Week 11 - MOTW

It's almost playoff time! Just like how the fantasy season has been a weird one, the NFL has been just as fluky. The Raiders might overtake the Chiefs for supremacy in the AFC West, the NFC East division winner may finish at .500, the Browns sucked but could still make the playoffs, and the Dolphins have somehow won 2 games while the Bengals have yet to win one.

The top tier of the league seems to have their places set, especially with Dan already securing his spot in the playoffs. Even David Y looks relatively safe, although, not secured. I'd say there's 5 teams fighting for those last 2 spots. Let's take a look at 2 of them that are in must-win mode in week 11.

Side note: Eric, I legit laughed out loud at your team name. Well played.

MOTW
7. Mud Dogs vs. 9. DK vs. Everybody
Jung has had an up and down season having a 4 game losing streak followed by a 4 game winning streak to put him back at the cusp of making the playoffs. He'll need to keep this win streak going to play for the big cash prize to pay for the hospital bills (Congrats to Jung and Aimee on the birth of ::REDACTED:: [this is just in case Jung and Aimee want to keep ::REDACTED::'s name off the internet on some random blog]). In week 11, he faces David K, who has been on almost the exact same streak as him: 4 losses followed by 3 wins and then one blowout loss last week. Which Kim will emerge victorious?

Studs: J. Brown vs. Jacobs
No matchup in the NFL is as exciting for an offensive player than the Dolphins (maybe the Bengals). John Brown has been a solid addition for Josh Allen but this might be the game where he explodes and establishes himself as a Bill for life. No Minkah means no resistance down the field. Josh Jacobs gets a similar draw as he faces the other best matchup for an offensive player. He's the clear bell cow back in Oakland and they should lead with enough time for him to get 20+ touches.

Duds: Murray vs. whichever QB David picks up
Murray has calmed down after a rocky start to the season and in his last 2, he's surpassed the 25 point barrier. But he faces a rough matchup against an SF defense that wants to avenge a tough Monday night loss to the Seahawks. Murray played well against them at home last time, but it'll be a totally different situation in Levi's. He'll be hard pressed to surpass the 20 point barrier. David loses A-aron in one of the biggest matchups of the year. He'll have to look to the free agent pool to pick the best option but nothing out there is that appealing. Do you take Foles off a bye/injury against a solid Indy defense? Rudolph against a torchable Browns secondary? Is Mayfield actually back on track? Do you hope Dalton throws a ton as they try to come back against the Raiders? We'll find out who he decides to pick for this pivotal matchup but let's say that he most likely will not be carrying David K's scoring load.

X-Factors: Diggs vs. Samuel and Sutton
Diggs had a 3 week stretch where he surpassed 140 yards every game. And then he's gone back to the form he had at the beginning of the season. We haven't heard any complaints from him yet (maybe because Minny is winning) but his performance against the Broncos will be crucial in determining who comes out victorious. On the other side, David is missing his 2 best receivers to the bye so his normal WR3s will need to have big weeks to make up for their missing production. The good news is, they both get plus matchups in games where the ball should be thrown a lot. If they can play like WR1/2s for 1 week, David might be able to pull this one out.

Key Players on Bye:
Jung - None
Mike - Rodgers, Adams, Metcalf - Yikes. Losing your top 2 WRs and your back-in-form QB is a rough proposition when fighting for your playoff life.

Winner: Jung
David is just missing too many pieces to have a real shot at winning this matchup. Downgrading from a top tier QB1 to a bottom tier QB2 is rough, and losing 2 WRs and hoping for the best is not a great way to win a matchup. Jacobs will do his best but this might be the week that David is officially eliminated from the playoffs.

MOTW record: 2-3 (Maybe the curse is real?)

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

Week 10 - MOTW

I'm getting sick of writing about my own team. Let's dive right in.

(Also, a quick reminder to make sure that you message me regarding any issues you would like the league's feedback on. The survey is only weeks away!)

MOTW
5. David Y Team vs. 6. BEST TEAM
The two teams with the worst names in the league face off in a huge week 10 game. The winner will be 6-4, pretty much needing 1 win over the next 3 weeks to get into the playoffs. The loser will drop to .500 and need 2 of 3 wins and maybe a lot of points to win the tiebreaker to get in. For David and Mike, the playoffs start this week.

Studs: Cooper vs. Brees
While Minnesota's defense is pretty staunch, they've been susceptible to big plays by the top WRs. Julio and Ridley both scored a TD, Davante got over 100 yards, Alshon got a TD, Marvin Jones dropped 4 scores, and Tyreek put up a 140 and a TD. You'll see that the list has all kinds of receivers: speedsters, end zone threats, quick slant slot receivers. Amari should have a productive day, even if his team doesn't get the win. Brees gets to face the worst pass defense in the league. He tore up Arizona in his first game back and now he gets the Falcons at home to ease him back from his injury. Expect 300+ yards and 3+ TDs with the only thing limiting him being the huge lead the Saints build over the Falcons.

Duds: Zeke vs. D. Freeman
The reasons that allow Cooper to succeed (playing from behind, weak secondary) will be Zeke's downfall. Minnesota is one of the best at stopping the run. D. Freeman had 8 carries for 19 yards, Josh Jacobs had 10/44, and Howard had 13/39. Now they did have a few big performances against them (Aaron Jones and Damien Williams both had 100+ and a score) and none of the duds are as good as Zeke, but I think game flow will dictate a light day for Zeke. Nobody can shut him down completely but I don't think we'll see the Zeke we're used to. Freeman falls into a similar narrative as the Falcons will be playing from behind most likely starting in the 2nd quarter. On top of that, the Saints run defense has been their strength, stopping big names throughout the season. Freeman's best bet will be to get involved in the passing game to boost his production.

X-Factors: Tough Matchups vs. Ridiculously Easy Matchups
Cowboys vs. a rugged Minnesota team that keeps the other offense off the field by running the clock. Lockett against the best defense in football. Jimmy Graham vs. being guarded by Luke Kuechly. David's team is going into the slaughterhouse for what looks to be a down week for every player on his roster. Even Cooper is listed as the stud only because he has the most favorable of the Cowboys skill players. Contrast that with Mike's team. Saquon vs. the reeling Jets. Keenan vs. a burnable Raiders secondary. Hooper vs. a vulnerable middle of the field in a shootout. There's just so many easy matchups for Mike's stars, is this really a fair fight?

Key Players on Bye:
David Y - Watson, Howard, Chark - David could really have used a few of these other guys. DeShaun has been as hot as any QB in the league. Howard is in a split backfield but they've been effective running the ball (and should still be more useful that Darrell Henderson). And Chark could start over Renfrow as he is better at pretty much every aspect of football than Renfrow.
Mike - R. Freeman, Sanu - While he will miss the options to choose Royce and Sanu, I don't know if either would start. The only one I could really see starting is Sanu over Watkins or Boyd but it's not a bonafide upgrade like David would have with his players.

Winner: Mike
The matchups just lean too heavily towards Mike's way. David has an uphill fight to make the playoffs while Mike gets to prove one of my predictions wrong (of him missing the playoffs).

[On another note, Paul is doing a great job in making sure my prediction of him making the playoffs goes down the drain]

MOTW record: 2-2

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim