Another week, another loss for both Alex and Paul. They both sit at 0-3 and while 4 losses won't eliminate you from the playoffs, it's a large hole to climb out of, needing to go at least 7-2 in the remaining 9 weeks. So while Cho, Jon, and David K. continue to rack up wins (a combined 8-1 with the only loss coming from last week's MOTW), this week we'll be focusing on the bottom of the barrel.
MOTW
11. Ben There Raped That (Paul) vs. 12. (⌐■_■) (Alex)
Alex has been off to a terrible start with his auto-drafted team. He has yet to break 70 points in a week and his opponents have averaged almost 100 points per week against him. Paul showed signs of promised in week 2, nearing the 100 point mark, but his low has been lower than Alex, losing a 63-55 fight that made us all cringe. Who will keep their season hope's slightly more alive with a win this week?
QB: Rivers was one of the main reasons Paul had such tough sledding last week as he threw 2 picks before completing a pass to his own teammate. The Eagles defense is not a team that can be walked over and with the travel from the west coast, I don't expect the Chargers to get back to form yet. Meanwhile, Matty Ice gets a chance to bounce back from a rough showing in Detroit. Edge: Alex
WR: While Alex's group of receivers isn't terrible, they are hard to trust with some shaky QB play lately from Cousins, Siemian, and the lesser Manning. AJ and Keenan just have more talent than the receivers across from them and Alshon should have a nice day against the chargers who have a banged up secondary. Edge: Paul
RB: Who is Paul's RB2? Fat Rob? AP? Thompson? James White? It's an ugly situation for Paul while Alex has 3 legit RBs he can play based on matchups now that DeMarco is back and can even throw in an air back at Theo Riddick if he sees a shootout coming. Edge: Alex
TE: Neither TE has done much but until Luck comes back, Doyle will struggle, especially against a great LB corp in Seattle. Bennett might get more opportunities at home against a Bears team that has given up some big gains to opposing TEs. Edge: Paul
K/DEF: It's hard to bet against Justin Tucker, the best kicker in the NFL, especially in what looks to be a slug fest with end zone opportunities being rare. Neither defense offers much hope for double digit points. Edge: Alex
Winner: Alex
This will also be a close MOTW, just like last week, with Alex winning by a single digit margin. While Paul's WRs will do their best to keep it close, Alex's team that actually has some talent from top to bottom will finally click to get Alex his first W.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 28, 2017
Thursday, September 21, 2017
MOTW - Week 3
Welcome to week 3. It's been a weird year in the NFL where the powerhouses are faltering (Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, Saints) and new contenders are emerging (Raiders, Lions). They say fantasy mirrors reality and this holds true in our league, where David Kim's team has become an overwhelming favorite in the first 2 weeks. All those years of taking my verbal abuse may finally be coming to an end. While crowning him as a champion is pre-mature, he'll have to take his feature in the MOTW as his current consolation prize.
MOTW
1. mike&mike (David K.) vs. 3. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Before we even get into the MOTW, let's take a look at the two team names and award some bonus points from the get go. David has created a very fitting name for his team after acquiring Mike Evans in a trade AND created a photo-shopped avatar that matches. Jon just kept his name from last year and it doesn't even make sense as Gronk is not on his team. Edge: David
On a positive note for the Kim/Lee family, they're featured in a meaningful MOTW! Could this be a preview of an all Kim/Lee championship? We'll see. And Paul, you better pick it up if you don't want to be mocked at family events going forward.
QB: 2 running QBs match up against very different defenses. Cam gets an easy nod here as the difference between playing Seattle and New Orleans is as big as the difference between a black RB and a white RB. Edge: Jon
WR: Julio is clearly a cut above the rest of the receivers but Mike Evans and Michael Thomas aren't far behind due to their high target volumes. But Evans will be matched up against Xavier Rhodes who limited Antonio Brown to an awful fantasy day and Thomas plays on the road, where Brees is a middle of the pack QB at best. With Cooks looking to get more involved in the NE offense and Kelvin Benjamin going against a defense that's given up tons of yards and scores through the air, Jon gets the edge again. Edge: Jon
RB: Kareem Hunt has been ridiculous in his first 2 weeks. He's on pace for 40 TDs (and technically 8 fumbles lost)! Melvin Gordon has been a workhorse and had 2 great showings that should be above average against the run. While Gillislee is becoming a solid TD vulture and Cook showed flashes of stardom in his first game, they're no match for their opponents. Edge: David
TE: Not really high on either TE here but give a slight edge to Fleener. If Brees is struggling on the road, he's more likely to rely on the sure hands of his TE. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Both defenses get terrible offenses so they should both be good for 10+ points each. Prater gets to kick in a dome in what should be a high scoring game. Edge: David
Winner: Jon
By a hair, Jon pulls this one out. Jon will amass a large lead before the afternoon games that David's RBs will try valiantly to overcome. However, they'll fall just short, in a match up that should be decided by single digits.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
MOTW
1. mike&mike (David K.) vs. 3. It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Before we even get into the MOTW, let's take a look at the two team names and award some bonus points from the get go. David has created a very fitting name for his team after acquiring Mike Evans in a trade AND created a photo-shopped avatar that matches. Jon just kept his name from last year and it doesn't even make sense as Gronk is not on his team. Edge: David
On a positive note for the Kim/Lee family, they're featured in a meaningful MOTW! Could this be a preview of an all Kim/Lee championship? We'll see. And Paul, you better pick it up if you don't want to be mocked at family events going forward.
QB: 2 running QBs match up against very different defenses. Cam gets an easy nod here as the difference between playing Seattle and New Orleans is as big as the difference between a black RB and a white RB. Edge: Jon
WR: Julio is clearly a cut above the rest of the receivers but Mike Evans and Michael Thomas aren't far behind due to their high target volumes. But Evans will be matched up against Xavier Rhodes who limited Antonio Brown to an awful fantasy day and Thomas plays on the road, where Brees is a middle of the pack QB at best. With Cooks looking to get more involved in the NE offense and Kelvin Benjamin going against a defense that's given up tons of yards and scores through the air, Jon gets the edge again. Edge: Jon
RB: Kareem Hunt has been ridiculous in his first 2 weeks. He's on pace for 40 TDs (and technically 8 fumbles lost)! Melvin Gordon has been a workhorse and had 2 great showings that should be above average against the run. While Gillislee is becoming a solid TD vulture and Cook showed flashes of stardom in his first game, they're no match for their opponents. Edge: David
TE: Not really high on either TE here but give a slight edge to Fleener. If Brees is struggling on the road, he's more likely to rely on the sure hands of his TE. Edge: Jon
K/DEF: Both defenses get terrible offenses so they should both be good for 10+ points each. Prater gets to kick in a dome in what should be a high scoring game. Edge: David
Winner: Jon
By a hair, Jon pulls this one out. Jon will amass a large lead before the afternoon games that David's RBs will try valiantly to overcome. However, they'll fall just short, in a match up that should be decided by single digits.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 14, 2017
Updated FPI
Here is the updated FPI with last year's results included. A refresher for those who may have forgotten what the FPI will follow. For those that remember, please scroll down:
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2016: 23%
2015: 21%
2014: 19%
2013: 16%
2012: 12%
2011: 7%
2010: 2%
(I made some adjustments to give more weight to recent championships)
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.2-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Cowboys, Chiefs, or Falcons.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Redskins, Buccaneers, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Changes since last year:
1) Biggie is dominating, thanks to his 3 wins in 4 years. He'll need to fail pretty spectacularly to fall in the rankings.
2) Jon is leaving his family members in the dust. He's jumped into playoff contender status after his 2nd place finish last year.
3) David Y. is starting to slide. He's already missed the playoffs 2 straight years and was predicted to be the worst this year as well. While his week 1 performance wasn't that bad, will he be able to raise his FPI with a playoff showing this year?
4) Dan keeps his playoff streak alive... and still can't win. I'm praying for you Dan.
5) A couple of veterans are struggling to stay relevant, with Mike, Cho, and Eric all missing the playoffs 2+ years in a row. We'll see who can snap out of this funk this year.
6) Alex and Jung will be competing to see who can keep their playoff streak alive this season. Both joined 2 years ago and want to prove that their first 2 years weren't beginner's (returner's for Jung?) luck.
7) I hope this is the year David K. can get rid of that 0 next to his name. I'm also praying for you.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
So here's the basics of how the fantasy player index is measured:
1) All playoff performances are measured since I took over as commissioner of the league (2010).
2) You get points for the following things:
Playoff appearance: 1 point
3rd place: 2 points
2nd place: 3 points
1st place: 5 points
3) More recent performance is weighted more heavily than past performance. Going forward, these percentages will need to be adjusted as I plan on measuring FPI on the past 10 years of performance. For this year, the percentages are:
2016: 23%
2015: 21%
2014: 19%
2013: 16%
2012: 12%
2011: 7%
2010: 2%
(I made some adjustments to give more weight to recent championships)
4) Certain GMs have dropped out so their teams are counted as being "inherited" by other fantasy GMs. My analysis mostly focuses around Team FPIs in order to ensure enough history for each team to be statistically significant. However, I will make some pointers on interesting observations from each player's perspective.
5) A quick key to how to decode how good a fantasy team is:
>2: Dynastic. Probably cheating like the Patriots.
1.2-1.99: Playoff locks and championship threats. Think Packers or Seahawks.
0.9-1.39: Playoff contenders but need a little luck to win the whole thing. Comparable to the Cowboys, Chiefs, or Falcons.
0.4-0.89: Stepladder for above teams to make playoffs. Will they win some games? Yes. But so do the Redskins, Buccaneers, and Dolphins but they're not challenging anybody for the ship.
<0.39: Thanks for your donation to the fantasy football payout fund. We encourage you to follow the Browns or Bears this NFL season.
Green is good, Yellow is average, and Red is David K.
Changes since last year:
1) Biggie is dominating, thanks to his 3 wins in 4 years. He'll need to fail pretty spectacularly to fall in the rankings.
2) Jon is leaving his family members in the dust. He's jumped into playoff contender status after his 2nd place finish last year.
3) David Y. is starting to slide. He's already missed the playoffs 2 straight years and was predicted to be the worst this year as well. While his week 1 performance wasn't that bad, will he be able to raise his FPI with a playoff showing this year?
4) Dan keeps his playoff streak alive... and still can't win. I'm praying for you Dan.
5) A couple of veterans are struggling to stay relevant, with Mike, Cho, and Eric all missing the playoffs 2+ years in a row. We'll see who can snap out of this funk this year.
6) Alex and Jung will be competing to see who can keep their playoff streak alive this season. Both joined 2 years ago and want to prove that their first 2 years weren't beginner's (returner's for Jung?) luck.
7) I hope this is the year David K. can get rid of that 0 next to his name. I'm also praying for you.
That's all for this post. Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, September 7, 2017
2017!
Welcome to 2017!
I know it's been a while since I posted and since we've just had football in general but I'm excited for this season. Might be the first year in a while that I can do updates every week now that I no longer have school. Anyways, this first post may be short but next week, in lieu of a MOTW, I'll share the latest FPR since there really can't be a MOTW in week 1.
On to the good stuff!
Season Predictions
Winner: It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Although he gets some points off for not updating his name, Jon looks to be in good position to improve upon his second place performance from last year. He has 3 arguable WR1s, 3 RBs that should get plenty of work, and a QB that should bounce back from a disappointing year. All things are looking up for Jon. (This prediction was actually just your engagement gift. Congrats!)
Runner Up: Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
Although his QB position might be slightly shaky, he has the #1 overall TE, the #1 overall RB, and 4 WRs that should be the #1 option on their team. That's a lot of hashtags. The above may not seem overwhelmingly favorable for a fantasy team but with Le'veon trying to prove he's worth big money, I wouldn't bet against a monster fantasy year from the RB.
Dark Horse: mike&mike (David K.)
What? After all those years of making fun of his draft strategy am I really calling him a dark horse? Can he really go from doing years of only playing until week 13 to making it to the money rounds? Behind 3 great WRs (thanks to a pre-season trade) and a fortunate injury that thrust Kareem Hunt into a starting role, David might do some damage this year. His QB spot is questionable but Mariota may just surprise us all.
Last Place: David Y Team (David Y.)
The last place is both for the creativity of his name and his predicted finish. While he has Antonio, who should make every week close, the loss of Ware, the reach on McCaffrey (is he really a #1 RB), and a shaky WR3 makes his team less than appealing. Additionally, Rudolph, while a solid contributor in real life, is never a threat to go for 15+ points in a week. Unless he makes a blockbuster trade or nabs a key free agent, David may be looking at a short season.
Week 1 starts today so good luck to all!
Simon Kim
I know it's been a while since I posted and since we've just had football in general but I'm excited for this season. Might be the first year in a while that I can do updates every week now that I no longer have school. Anyways, this first post may be short but next week, in lieu of a MOTW, I'll share the latest FPR since there really can't be a MOTW in week 1.
On to the good stuff!
Season Predictions
Winner: It'saHardGronkLife (Jon)
Although he gets some points off for not updating his name, Jon looks to be in good position to improve upon his second place performance from last year. He has 3 arguable WR1s, 3 RBs that should get plenty of work, and a QB that should bounce back from a disappointing year. All things are looking up for Jon. (This prediction was actually just your engagement gift. Congrats!)
Runner Up: Dont Stop BellLeveon (Eric)
Although his QB position might be slightly shaky, he has the #1 overall TE, the #1 overall RB, and 4 WRs that should be the #1 option on their team. That's a lot of hashtags. The above may not seem overwhelmingly favorable for a fantasy team but with Le'veon trying to prove he's worth big money, I wouldn't bet against a monster fantasy year from the RB.
Dark Horse: mike&mike (David K.)
What? After all those years of making fun of his draft strategy am I really calling him a dark horse? Can he really go from doing years of only playing until week 13 to making it to the money rounds? Behind 3 great WRs (thanks to a pre-season trade) and a fortunate injury that thrust Kareem Hunt into a starting role, David might do some damage this year. His QB spot is questionable but Mariota may just surprise us all.
Last Place: David Y Team (David Y.)
The last place is both for the creativity of his name and his predicted finish. While he has Antonio, who should make every week close, the loss of Ware, the reach on McCaffrey (is he really a #1 RB), and a shaky WR3 makes his team less than appealing. Additionally, Rudolph, while a solid contributor in real life, is never a threat to go for 15+ points in a week. Unless he makes a blockbuster trade or nabs a key free agent, David may be looking at a short season.
Week 1 starts today so good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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