Sorry about missing last week. Just got too busy with travel, work, and school.
But I do appreciate the fact that when I miss a MOTW, people tell me. Meaning that people are still checking this site.
MOTW
2. legohead (Biggie) vs. 3. alex's Optimal Team (Alex)
In a big week for most teams due to the byes, both of these teams have their optimal lineups active this week. Who knew that the 2 newbies would be so dominant this early in the season? They currently sit at 3 and 5 for the season and are a combined 9-3. Biggie, one of the old guards (BTW, with Nelson dropping out, the league is almost evenly split between old and new players), looks to put Alex in his place.
QB: While there's no way that I'm going to say that Luck is better than Brady this season, the matchups make this closer than it appears at first glance. Luck plays a horrendous Saints secondary at home and seems to be clicking with his receivers more as they get more reps together. He will have had another week to heal so the overthrows of last week should be a thing of the past. Meanwhile, Brady takes on a Jets defense that has Revis shutting down top options and a fierce pass rush that will make Brady uncomfortable. Edge: Even
WR: Whether Big Ben returns or not could determine who wins this matchup battle but we'll be optimistic and say he's expected to return. If he does, Antonio Brown is due for an EFF YOU game, where he catches 150+ yards and 2+ TDs just to remind the league why he's a first round fantasy pick. All the other receivers could end up being overlooked due to Brown's overdue performance. Edge: Biggie
RB: Devonta will slow down eventually. The only problem is, it won't be this week. While the Titans have been a top 10 defense based on DVOA, there are just too many weapons in Atlanta for them to stop. Add the fact that Forsett goes against a staunch Arizona defense and Gordon gets a mediocre Raiders defense and it looks like Biggie's win. Edge: Biggie
TE: While Gates has been great in his return, there's nobody in Gronk's stratosphere at the moment. Edge: Alex
K/DEF: The Seattle defense has had a habit of handing games away late but there's no chance this week. While they aren't impenetrable on the road, they should clamp down against this horrendous 49ers offense. And while the Giants get another decent matchup in the Cowboys sans Romo+Dez, they won't be able to equal Seattle's output. Edge: Biggie
Winner: Biggie
His team is clicking on all cylinders and he'll look to climb to the top of the table after this week. Alex's team will be unfortunate to lose this week but it isn't unexpected as he faces 4 of the current top 5 teams in the next 5 weeks.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Wheat from Chaff
Instead of a MOTW this week, we'll take a look at the state of the league a third of the way into the fantasy season. We'll put teams into tiers based on their likelihood of making the playoffs/championship. The list goes from worst to best, starting with:
Start researching for 2016
9. Gronkey Kong (David Y.)
His two running backs are too erratic to carry this team consistently. Hyde has been more Jekyll and Hill is in a firm time-share based on "game-flow" (a way of saying whoever seems to be doing better in a given game) with Gio. Meanwhile, Manning's arm looks like it has no zip anymore and Demaryius stands to lose the most due to the absence of power in his arm. While Moncrief has been a nice find, just too many holes in this team to be a legitimate contender.
12. Odell Naw (Eric)
Averaging less than 80 points a week is not a great way to compete for the championship. He's also never had a week over 100 points. While he was unfortunate to lose Romo and have nagging injuries affect Lynch, he's had a hard time choosing the right players to play. While it may be a mistake to put him in this group this early in the season, I'm relegating him to the group waiting for next year.
11. Ben There Raped That (Paul)
How this team beat Mike's team I'll never know. His top 2 WRs have not lived up to their billing (although his later picks and pickups of James Jones, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall have been paying off quite nicely. Although, this may lead to analysis paralysis which inevitably leads to Paul picking the wrong WR to play each week) and while AP is entrenched in one RB role, he's paying the price for drafting Alfred Morris. Maybe Joe Flacco can right the ship that Bradford was determined to sink but I say it's already too late for this team.
They could sneak in and make a run if....
10. Jacked Up (Cho)
...he can survive while their injured players return.
Talk about inheriting the curse of Nelson. Dez, Ben, Adams, Coleman, and Murray have all dealt with or are still dealing with injuries. The good news is, it looks like Dez and Ben could come back by week 8, leaving Cho enough time to push for the playoffs IF he can survive the weeks up to that point. He'll need to be around 3-5 at the worst to have a legitimate chance, but going 2-2 is possible if his matchups and bye weeks break the right way.
8. Switch Hitters (David K.)
...he can get a true franchise piece.
David actually did a solid job in the draft this year. Not too much reaching and although he foolishly took Graham, his team has had some close losses so far that he can chalk up to bad luck. But when you look at his roster, he's missing that one player that makes you afraid to play him. Forte is about the closest he has but Graham, Manning, Sanders, and CJ Anderson aren't striking fear into anybody's hearts. His team isn't terrible but until he can get that one extra piece, either through a player's development or a trade, he'll be watching everyone else in the playoffs.
6. White Welker (Jung)
...he finds more consistent players, especially at RB.
The team that was probably closest to an auto-draft team and the only team at 2-2 has been on both sides of the spectrum in terms of points. One week he'll score almost 120, then he'll drop below 60. There are definitely some big playmakers on this team with OBJ, Megatron, and Brees all able to put up monster games at any given moment. Witten is a sure 8 points a week and Bernard is the lotto ticket you're hoping gets the chance to pay off. But his bench depth is weak and while these boom or bust players can have you celebrate big wins, they can fail you at the most important times as well. He may want to trade some hot assets for more consistency.
7. Quabity Assuance (Dan)
...he trades a TE for an upgrade at WR.
Hoarding players at a specific position is great but you need to be able to use that to your advantage. While he could use another RB as I don't trust McCoy for the entire season, he could definitely use an upgrade at WR. Edelman has been over-performing and I don't trust the Bears at all this season. If he can upgrade either the WR or RB position, he could be primed to make the playoffs yet again and scare a favorite.
I would put them in the next tier if only they had a....
5. Just Forsett In (Mike)
...Tight End.
Before the season, I thought Mike's biggest weakness would be RB but between Dion's emergence as the lead back in that backfield, Arian's earlier than expected return, and Abdullah's bigger role due to injuries, Mike's backfield looks solid enough not to be a complete liability. However, his TE position has been weak all season. He's looking to a 30 year old veteran that nobody has heard of to be his savior. Could it work out? Yes. If it doesn't though, it's tough to beat another team 9 on 8.
1. alex's Optimal Team (Alex)
...WR or RB that could be the third cornerstone.
The only undefeated team has two rock solid pieces at QB and TE. Arguably the best at each of those positions, his only worry is in bolstering his skill positions. Forsett has only had one good game where he accumulated half of his season's points. Murray has been better than expected but as we saw last week, he's prone to fumbling and missing easy catches. His wide receivers are so inconsistent that it's hard to pick the three that are going to perform well on any given week. I don't know how he's going to get a 3rd reliable player but it would go a long way in securing his championship hopes.
Man, they look good. But if I'm nitpicking, they could still use a....
3. legohead (Biggie)
...consistent TE.
With Devonta's explosion (does Coleman still have the starting job when he returns?), Randle playing well behind that amazing Dallas line, Rivers making up for Luck's lack of performance, and Antonio Brown, Biggie has a team that is playing well at the moment AND could improve. Imagine if Luck regains last year's form (which will affect Hilton as well), Yeldon and the Jaguars take a step forward, Brown gets Ben back, and Seattle's defense with Kam pick up where they left off last year. That's not a team I want to play in the playoffs. But similar to Mike's team, Biggie needs a TE, evidenced by him carrying THREE on his roster. What separates Biggie from Mike is that his TEs have a better chance of being real players than Mike's. Let's hope Gates isn't the answer for Biggie's team.
4. Gotta Catch Jamaal (Jon)
...RB2 or WR3.
Arguably the best team Jon has put together, this team is brimming with firepower from so many positions. Palmer leads the suddenly explosive Cardinals offense. Cooper and Hopkins, young WRs, are emerging as two of the best in the league in offenses that have to throw a lot to make up for being behind. Charles is arguably the most consistent RB in the league. Kelce and Reed are two of the top 10 TEs and he can play them based on their matchups. With a team like this, a RB2 or WR3 is just icing on the cake but he could definitely use one. Lamar Miller has been terrible, along with the rest of the Dolphins, Agholor can't get involved in the offense in Philly, and Boldin is just as frustrated as Jon is (as evidenced by his outburst on the sidelines against the Packers). If he finds that final piece, I don't see what can stop Jon from making a run to the finals.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Start researching for 2016
9. Gronkey Kong (David Y.)
His two running backs are too erratic to carry this team consistently. Hyde has been more Jekyll and Hill is in a firm time-share based on "game-flow" (a way of saying whoever seems to be doing better in a given game) with Gio. Meanwhile, Manning's arm looks like it has no zip anymore and Demaryius stands to lose the most due to the absence of power in his arm. While Moncrief has been a nice find, just too many holes in this team to be a legitimate contender.
12. Odell Naw (Eric)
Averaging less than 80 points a week is not a great way to compete for the championship. He's also never had a week over 100 points. While he was unfortunate to lose Romo and have nagging injuries affect Lynch, he's had a hard time choosing the right players to play. While it may be a mistake to put him in this group this early in the season, I'm relegating him to the group waiting for next year.
11. Ben There Raped That (Paul)
How this team beat Mike's team I'll never know. His top 2 WRs have not lived up to their billing (although his later picks and pickups of James Jones, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall have been paying off quite nicely. Although, this may lead to analysis paralysis which inevitably leads to Paul picking the wrong WR to play each week) and while AP is entrenched in one RB role, he's paying the price for drafting Alfred Morris. Maybe Joe Flacco can right the ship that Bradford was determined to sink but I say it's already too late for this team.
They could sneak in and make a run if....
10. Jacked Up (Cho)
...he can survive while their injured players return.
Talk about inheriting the curse of Nelson. Dez, Ben, Adams, Coleman, and Murray have all dealt with or are still dealing with injuries. The good news is, it looks like Dez and Ben could come back by week 8, leaving Cho enough time to push for the playoffs IF he can survive the weeks up to that point. He'll need to be around 3-5 at the worst to have a legitimate chance, but going 2-2 is possible if his matchups and bye weeks break the right way.
8. Switch Hitters (David K.)
...he can get a true franchise piece.
David actually did a solid job in the draft this year. Not too much reaching and although he foolishly took Graham, his team has had some close losses so far that he can chalk up to bad luck. But when you look at his roster, he's missing that one player that makes you afraid to play him. Forte is about the closest he has but Graham, Manning, Sanders, and CJ Anderson aren't striking fear into anybody's hearts. His team isn't terrible but until he can get that one extra piece, either through a player's development or a trade, he'll be watching everyone else in the playoffs.
6. White Welker (Jung)
...he finds more consistent players, especially at RB.
The team that was probably closest to an auto-draft team and the only team at 2-2 has been on both sides of the spectrum in terms of points. One week he'll score almost 120, then he'll drop below 60. There are definitely some big playmakers on this team with OBJ, Megatron, and Brees all able to put up monster games at any given moment. Witten is a sure 8 points a week and Bernard is the lotto ticket you're hoping gets the chance to pay off. But his bench depth is weak and while these boom or bust players can have you celebrate big wins, they can fail you at the most important times as well. He may want to trade some hot assets for more consistency.
7. Quabity Assuance (Dan)
...he trades a TE for an upgrade at WR.
Hoarding players at a specific position is great but you need to be able to use that to your advantage. While he could use another RB as I don't trust McCoy for the entire season, he could definitely use an upgrade at WR. Edelman has been over-performing and I don't trust the Bears at all this season. If he can upgrade either the WR or RB position, he could be primed to make the playoffs yet again and scare a favorite.
I would put them in the next tier if only they had a....
5. Just Forsett In (Mike)
...Tight End.
Before the season, I thought Mike's biggest weakness would be RB but between Dion's emergence as the lead back in that backfield, Arian's earlier than expected return, and Abdullah's bigger role due to injuries, Mike's backfield looks solid enough not to be a complete liability. However, his TE position has been weak all season. He's looking to a 30 year old veteran that nobody has heard of to be his savior. Could it work out? Yes. If it doesn't though, it's tough to beat another team 9 on 8.
1. alex's Optimal Team (Alex)
...WR or RB that could be the third cornerstone.
The only undefeated team has two rock solid pieces at QB and TE. Arguably the best at each of those positions, his only worry is in bolstering his skill positions. Forsett has only had one good game where he accumulated half of his season's points. Murray has been better than expected but as we saw last week, he's prone to fumbling and missing easy catches. His wide receivers are so inconsistent that it's hard to pick the three that are going to perform well on any given week. I don't know how he's going to get a 3rd reliable player but it would go a long way in securing his championship hopes.
Man, they look good. But if I'm nitpicking, they could still use a....
3. legohead (Biggie)
...consistent TE.
With Devonta's explosion (does Coleman still have the starting job when he returns?), Randle playing well behind that amazing Dallas line, Rivers making up for Luck's lack of performance, and Antonio Brown, Biggie has a team that is playing well at the moment AND could improve. Imagine if Luck regains last year's form (which will affect Hilton as well), Yeldon and the Jaguars take a step forward, Brown gets Ben back, and Seattle's defense with Kam pick up where they left off last year. That's not a team I want to play in the playoffs. But similar to Mike's team, Biggie needs a TE, evidenced by him carrying THREE on his roster. What separates Biggie from Mike is that his TEs have a better chance of being real players than Mike's. Let's hope Gates isn't the answer for Biggie's team.
4. Gotta Catch Jamaal (Jon)
...RB2 or WR3.
Arguably the best team Jon has put together, this team is brimming with firepower from so many positions. Palmer leads the suddenly explosive Cardinals offense. Cooper and Hopkins, young WRs, are emerging as two of the best in the league in offenses that have to throw a lot to make up for being behind. Charles is arguably the most consistent RB in the league. Kelce and Reed are two of the top 10 TEs and he can play them based on their matchups. With a team like this, a RB2 or WR3 is just icing on the cake but he could definitely use one. Lamar Miller has been terrible, along with the rest of the Dolphins, Agholor can't get involved in the offense in Philly, and Boldin is just as frustrated as Jon is (as evidenced by his outburst on the sidelines against the Packers). If he finds that final piece, I don't see what can stop Jon from making a run to the finals.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
Friday, October 2, 2015
MOTW - Week 4
Apologies for not getting a MOTW in before the Thursday night game. I was swamped with work and didn't get a chance to write one before the game began.
The one good outcome is that the football gods have chosen the MOTW for this week by leaving me with only one matchup that was unaffected by the Thursday night game. So without further ado:
MOTW
4. Just Forsett In (Mike) vs. 7. Switch Hitters (David K.)
QB: All Matty Ice has to do is throw it to #11. Against a Texans D that could be the worst in the league if it wasn't for Watt at home in the dome, expect a 30+ point game for Ryan. Eli has to face a tough Rex Ryan defense in Buffalo. Edge: Mike
WR: Julio and AJ showed why they both deserved to be taken in the first round this season. The fact that they ended up on the same fantasy team is just ridiculous. On top of that, he has Crabtree, who faces a Chicago defense that may just be the worst in the league. David's WRs have some tough matchups this week. Sanders has to face an underrated Vikings secondary, Tate may be sacrificed to Sherman, and Landry could be shadowed by Revis. Edge: Mike
RB: Could this be the week Foster makes his comeback? And even if he does, is he good enough to turn around the tire fire that is the Texans offense? Abdullah will have a tough day against the Seattle front 7. Meanwhile, Forte faces an underwhelming Oakland defense, and Matt Jones looks to tighten his grip on the starting back job for the Redskins. Edge: David K.
TE: The two TEs face each other on Monday night and I have to give this one to Graham for a few reasons. First, talent. Second, defensive matchup. Edge: David K.
K/DEF: Crosby should put up a lot of points as Green Bay should score at will against the 49ers. But Carolina's defense could be in for a big day against TB and their low scoring, turnover prone ways. The edge will go to David because Kirk Cousins is no ace with the ball himself. Edge: David K.
Winner: Just Forsett In (Mike)
While he may lose more of the position battles, the ones he wins will have dominant margins of victories. Julio and AJ might be enough to take on 4-5 players on David's team.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
The one good outcome is that the football gods have chosen the MOTW for this week by leaving me with only one matchup that was unaffected by the Thursday night game. So without further ado:
MOTW
4. Just Forsett In (Mike) vs. 7. Switch Hitters (David K.)
QB: All Matty Ice has to do is throw it to #11. Against a Texans D that could be the worst in the league if it wasn't for Watt at home in the dome, expect a 30+ point game for Ryan. Eli has to face a tough Rex Ryan defense in Buffalo. Edge: Mike
WR: Julio and AJ showed why they both deserved to be taken in the first round this season. The fact that they ended up on the same fantasy team is just ridiculous. On top of that, he has Crabtree, who faces a Chicago defense that may just be the worst in the league. David's WRs have some tough matchups this week. Sanders has to face an underrated Vikings secondary, Tate may be sacrificed to Sherman, and Landry could be shadowed by Revis. Edge: Mike
RB: Could this be the week Foster makes his comeback? And even if he does, is he good enough to turn around the tire fire that is the Texans offense? Abdullah will have a tough day against the Seattle front 7. Meanwhile, Forte faces an underwhelming Oakland defense, and Matt Jones looks to tighten his grip on the starting back job for the Redskins. Edge: David K.
TE: The two TEs face each other on Monday night and I have to give this one to Graham for a few reasons. First, talent. Second, defensive matchup. Edge: David K.
K/DEF: Crosby should put up a lot of points as Green Bay should score at will against the 49ers. But Carolina's defense could be in for a big day against TB and their low scoring, turnover prone ways. The edge will go to David because Kirk Cousins is no ace with the ball himself. Edge: David K.
Winner: Just Forsett In (Mike)
While he may lose more of the position battles, the ones he wins will have dominant margins of victories. Julio and AJ might be enough to take on 4-5 players on David's team.
Good luck to all!
Simon Kim
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