MOTW - Week 4

Every week, fantasy has ups and downs. Your franchise QB might have a stinker or your op wideout might go scoreless. But there was something extraordinarily bizarre this week. Consider the following:

- Jake Locker, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder and Brian Hoyer were better QBs than Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, or Luck.

- Stephen Hill, Jason Avant, Marvin Jones, Justin Hunter, Dwayne Harris, Tandon Doss, and Eric Page were better WRs than Cobb, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Bowe, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Cruz and Mike Wallace.

- Jason Snelling, Jonathan Franklin, Brandon Bolden, Alfonso Smith, Ronnie Brown (Remeber when Ronnie Brown was relevant??!?!), Jordan Todman, and Blount were better RBs than Lamar Miller, Sproles, Arian Foster, Ridley, and Spiller.

I don't know what happened. It's like the NFL collectively decided to screw over all fantasy players.

Here's hoping for a more normal week 4.

MOTW
2. Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. 6. Orangevodjuiceka (Dan Park)
QB: It looks like an easy win for Dan but did you guys see what Andrew Luck did to the 49ers defense? With another weapon in the backfield in TRich and going against an awful Jaguars team that Russell Wilson was able to put up 4 TDs on, Luck will give Brees a run for his money as he has to take on an underrated Dolphins defense that might get Cameron Wake back. Edge: Even
WR: No Cobb for Cho means a tough week against arguably the best WR squad in the league. Welker and Garcon might be able to keep up but Hill, even after a solid week, will be hard pressed to match their production. The one glimmer of hope that Cho's team has is that Calvin will be playing against the Bears who have shut him down in the past. Don't believe me? Look at the stats from his last 6 games against Chicago: 5 Rec/14 Targets-72 Yards-0 TD-7.2 Fantasy Points, 3/11-34-0-3.4, 5-130-1-19, 7-81-0-8.1, 4-45-0-4.5, 3-66-1-12.6. Only one game over 100 yards, only 2 scores in 6 games, and a catch percentage below 50. He's my GAMECHANGER this week. Edge: Dan
RB: We go from Dan's biggest strength to Dan's biggest weakness. Powell has played well recently in Ivory's absence, but there's no chance he keeps it up against a Tennessee defense that's been very solid against the run. They've only given up 1 rushing TD and kept all teams under 100 rushing yards. Although Arian must deal with the Seahawks, it'll be away from CenturyLink where they're a much different team. Edge: Cho
TE: Neither of these guys inspire much confidence. The Giants offense was awful last week and the Falcons haven't been the scoring juggernauts they were expected to be, although some of that can be attributed to the absence of SJax and Roddy. I'll stick with the tried and true Tony Gonzalez who somehow hasn't aged since his days in Kansas City. I have a theory that he drains and drinks the blood of all his RBs which is why all of them seem to die in a season or two (think about it... Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Michael Turner PLUS look at how well Jamaal Charles has been running for multiple years without his presence). Something to think about. I completely forgot what I was talking about before I went on that huge vampire tangent. Edge: Dan
K/DEF: Chicago's defense has actually been better at scoring than the Jaguars' offense on a per snap basis. The Indianapolis defense get to face this awful Jaguars team. This one's too close to call. The tiebreak has to go to Janikowski's leg, that's been itching to kick something ever since the Raiders' coaches passed on the opportunity to kick a 67 yarder on Monday night (which, let's be honest, if anyone can make it, it's Janikowski. Edge: Cho

Winner: Orangevodjuiceka (Dan Park)
The absence of Cobb should be enough to bring down Cho's team from undefeated status. Of course, I said this last week as well. And I have been 0-2 on my MOTWs since my mega-opener. So basically, being picked to win here might be more of a curse than a blessing. Good luck, Dan.

GAMECHANGER record through week 3: 4-4

MOTW record through week 3: 2-6 (I suck at this... no wonder why I can't win pick'ems.)

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 3

I needed to take my mind off work on Tuesday so I came up with a ranking of the best last-name offenses in the league. Assuming all offensive lines are equal:

Honorable Mentions: Davis (Vernon, Fred make for a deadly duo at TE, but very weak after that), Moore (Denarius, Lance, and Mewelde make for some weak skill position players, and having Matt behind center won't help them much), Williams (Almost a complete team with Mike, Kyle and Terrance catching the ball and DeAngelo and Ryan in the backfield, but there is literally no QB with the last name of Williams)

5) Brown: Antonio, Vincent, and Marlon make up a formidable receiving corp who have a few options in the backfield in Ronnie, Bryce, Andre, and Donald. But with Matt (who?) the only QB to throw to them, they have to settle for 5th.
4) Smith: Suprisingly, this team has best QB options with Alex and Geno and their receiving options aren't too shabby as Steve and Torrey line up to catch the ball. However, the backfield remains a mess with Alfonso and Kevin getting the bulk of the carries and who do we put at tight end or as the third WR?
3) Jones: Deep threats Julio, Jacoby, and James at WR along with a solid run game in Maurice (I'm counting MJD) and Felix. The real question is, can Landry ge tthem the ball?
2) Jackson: Now we get to the complete teams that all have NFL experience. Vincent and DeSean are both number 1 WRs and with Fred, Steven and Brandon in the backfield, you have guys who can split out wide if needed. Tavaris will never be a first choice for QB, but at least we know he can survive in NFL games.
1) Johnson: Calvin, Andre, and Stevie at WR should be enough to make this team number 1, no matter who throws them the ball. But throw in Chris in the backfield, David as a blocking TE and Josh, a QB with NFL experience, and you've got the best last-name offense in the league.

What does this all mean? Other than being able to know the answer off the top of your head when somebody asks you the random question of "Which last-name team would be the best in football?" and showing that I am too bored at work... Nothing.

Anyways, on to the good stuff.

MOTW
1. Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. 5. The Powerhouse (Nelson)
QB: Lost in all the Peyton Manning hoopla is how well Rodgers has been playing. He's averaging over 35 fantasy PPG, even as one of his games came across the formidable 49ers defense. Luck will have to face that aforementioned 49ers defense, as well as adjust to TRich's arrival. Don't expect this one to be close. Edge: Nelson
WR: I believe this matchup will come down to who wins the battle between Welker and Decker. Although Welker has been tearing it up and Decker has mostly disappointed owners, I believe this week Decker will get the love he's missed out on the past 2 weeks. Peyton's always been able to keep all his receiving options happy and with Welker and the two Thomases already taken care of, he'll focus on feeding Decker against a weak Raiders secondary. Decker is my GAMECHANGER this week. Edge: Nelson
RB: The Broncos have been surprisingly solid against the run, limiting both Ray Rice and the Giants backfield to under 100 yards rushing. The Patriots have also been surprisingly effective at stopping Spiller and the Jets backfield (although stopping the Jets shouldn't be surprising). On Cho's side, Foster's still dealing with injuries and a small time-share with Tate, and Ridley's disappointing season goes up against the solid front seven of Tampa. Prepare for little production out of both these backfields. Edge: Even
TE: Myers has shown that he is a preferred target of Eli and should continue to receive looks, but he will be covered by the versatile Panthers LB crew that could limit his value this week. Vernon Davis is nursing an injury and disappointed owners last week in an awful loss against the Seahawks. But he did tweet that he was feeling fine and he'll get back on track against a porous Indy secondary that is prone to giving up large chunks of yardage. Edge: Nelson
K/DEF: Seabass was a beast last week, scoring 14 points (more than Brady). You can't expect this every week but he's about as close to a gamechanger as you can get in the kicking department. Having Seabass along with a Chicago D that should pulverize a Steelers offense that has no run game and a shaky offensive line, Cho will try to make up some of the points here. Edge: Cho

Winner: The Powerhouse (Nelson)
The two teams I predicted to be the last ones standing are off to great starts. But Cho's undefeated season will come to an end as Nelson looks to reclaim one of the top 2 spots. His team should be 2-0 as he's scored over 100 points each week, but he was unfortunate in having to face Peyton Manning, a matchup he STILL almost came back and won.

GAMECHANGER record through week 2: 3-4

MOTW predictions through week 2: 2-5

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 2

Good News: If I stick by the rule that a GAMECHANGER's actual points need to be 50% over or 30% under his projection, I technically went 5-1.

Bad News: But 2 of them went the opposite way of what I predicted...

So my GAMECHANGER calling record stands at 3-3 and some of them did swing the matchups pretty dramatically. McCoy took Eric's team from a blowout to a 3 point loss, Myers brought Cho close enough to breathe easy before the Monday night games, and David Wilson's horrendous performance not only cost the Giants a win, but David's team as well.

But the most important thing is that football, and fantasy, is back! And one week into the season, everyone still has hope that their team can win the whole thing. Let's take a look at 2 teams that started on the right foot:

MOTW
2. Funky Fresh (David Yim) vs. 5. taeyeon (Mike)
QB: Russell Wilson has played 2 games against San Francisco in his short career. One game, in SF, he had 122/0/1 and netted less than 5 fantasy points. The other, at home, he had 171/4/1 and netted 30 points. Seattle has always seemed like a completely different team away from home but what do you make of these stats? Meanwhile, Romo takes on the revamped Chiefs team that started off with a demolition of the hapless Jags. Although they were awful as a team last year, they sent 4 members of their defense to the Pro Bowl. I want to give the GAMECHANGER label to both these QBs, but there's just too much risk on both sides. Edge: Even
WR: Both these teams had a WR no-show last Sunday and there's no reason to believe that they'll be much better this week. With all other things holding even, it looks like Demaryius will take David's team over the top against a shaky Giants pass defense. I wish I had more to say on these players but I don't know what else there is to say: These WRs aren't very exciting. Edge: David
RB: All 4 of these RBs scored double digit points in a weak week for the run game. Bush and Charles exploded and propelled Mike's team to a win last week but can they keep up that kind of production? With tougher matchups this week and each dealing with a nagging injury, David's power runners should be able to take Mike's speedy backfield. Edge: David
TE: Jimmy Graham is without doubt the best fantasy TE in the league, no matter how meager his performance was last week. With that being said, I'll make a statement: Owen Daniels will crush Jimmy's production. Daniels established himself as a red zone threat last week and was the clear 2nd option after Andre Johnson. Against a Titans team that's not necessarily a defensive juggernaut in a home opener, Owen Daniels will be a GAMECHANGER. Edge: David
K/DEF: Both kickers play for high-powered offenses that do occasionally stall in the red zone so it's a wash, although you must give consideration that Bryant will be playing a dome. But the real deciding factor will be the defenses. While San Francisco is arguably the best defense in the league, they got hammered by Rodgers last week and must travel to Seattle, where they got hammered last year as I mentioned before. Houston gets their crowd behind them for the first time this year and will have plenty of chances to hurt Locker (get it? Sorry.. no more corny jokes). Edge: Mike

Winner: David Yim
Mike rode 41+ points from his backfield to a relatively comfortable week 1 win and was able to make up for the deficiencies from his wide-outs. I can't see him doing that again as David's variance-resistant team takes home his second straight win.

GAMECHANGER record through week 1: 3-3

MOTW predictions through week 1: 2-4

Good luck to all!

Simon Kim

MOTW - Week 1

The very first MOTW of the season is here!

I think this is a good time to step up and apologize for starting to slack near the end of last season. My fantasy page got blocked at work and on weekends I got so busy near the holiday season that it ended up slipping through the cracks. But nonetheless, all of those are just excuses. I own up to my mistakes so I am sorry about last year and I hope to regain your trust and confidence in my MOTW.

I'm starting a new thing called the GAMECHANGER tag. This tag will denote a player who I believe will have a monstrous game, good or bad. If I denote a player as a GAMECHANGER, I believe their points for that week will either be 50% more OR 30% less than their projected points. I'll have a small description of why they deserve the tag.

And in order to make up for last year, here's a very special, never been done before, MOTW featuring all 12 teams (including a MOTW with my own team in it, which I haven't done since the first year of MOTWs)!! I'll go from least exciting matchup to most exciting:

Suck Mike Ditka (JY) vs. Forte Shades of Jay (Eric):

QB: This one looks to be the most unpredictable position matchup due to a few unknowns. How will Brady do without Welker? Is RG3 going to be as good as last year? I'll have to give the slight edge to Brady just because he's proven himself in the past, but don't be shocked if RG3 puts up a 40-pointer to shut me up. Edge: JY
WR: I think JY has the more talented receivers but their matchups are going to cause them problems all day. AJ Green will be the focus of the entire Bears secondary, which was the best pass defense last year. Jordy Nelson will probably be matched up against Nnamdi and although he failed in the weird Eagles zone defense, he'll be enough of a hindrance to ruin Jordy's day. Edge: Eric
RB: This one's not even close. Sure, Morris will probably make some waves against an unimposing Philly defense, but McCoy (GAMECHANGER: Have you seen Chip Kelly's RBs at Oregon?) and Lamar Miller are thousand-yard backs this year. The law-firm shouldn't be starting for any team in week 1. Edge: Eric
TE: Both TEs are feast-or-famine types. I'll take the "potential" of Jared Cook with his new QB over Bennett, who might see 2 targets if Marshall gets injured. Edge: Eric
K/DEF: Walsh has a leg up (pun intended) on Gostowski as he will be kicking in a dome. But with NE playing against lowly Buffalo, Gostowski might end up with 30 points, just on PATs. Both defenses play against turnover prone QBs so I'll call this one a wash. Edge: Even.

Winner: Eric
It looks like Eric's luck from last year continues as he gets an additional gift of playing one of the worst teams in the league in week 1. A great start for his quest towards back-to-back championships.

No Romo (David Kim) vs. taeyeon (Mike, formerly known as Badonkagronk):
QB: No Romo will take on Romo. How ironic. Luckily for No Romo, he has Matt Ryan instead. Ryan should be even better this year with Steven Jackson replacing the useless Michael Turner in the backfield and he gets to start against possibly the worst secondary in the league! That sounds pretty fabuloussss, no Romo... Edge: David
WR: The WR battle couldn't be more heavily favored to David's side. Marshall should see at least 20 targets this game, Roddy is playing against the aforementioned awful defense (and the double point bonus for having Ryan + Roddy will only make David happier), and Mike Williams will be free to pick apart the Jets defense while Cromartie is busy bothering VJax. Meanwhile, Brown has to take over as a WR1 for the departed Mike Wallace, who should be draped by Haden all day. Golden Tate represents a glimmer of hope, but not enough to change Mike's fate. Edge: David
RB: Why is there so much hype around David Wilson? All I remember him doing last year was fumbling the ball a lot. People think that with no viable backup, he should get plenty of touches. But who says the Giants are going to run a lot? I'm going to call Wilson my GAMECHANGER by declaring that he'll be held under 7 points. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles and Reggie Bush will thrive with a new coach and a new team, respectively. Edge: Mike
TE: The best TE in the league vs. a rookie who tried to catch the ball with his face. Hmm... this is a tough one? Edge: Mike
K/DEF: Neither kicker inspires many words so I'm going to take Houston to maul San Diego, who is clearly going through a rebuilding phase. With no real wide receivers and Ryan Mathews continuing to underperform, JJ Watt should be living in their backfield. Don't count out Patrick Peterson returning one (through pick, punt, or kickoff) for a TD though. Edge: Mike

Winner: David
Although Mike won more categories, the separation David creates through the WR position will be enough to jumpstart him this year in his quest to make the playoffs for the first time ever.

Jacked Up! (Cho) vs. its my vick in a box (Biggie):
QB: Too bad we don't play in a 4/6 league (This is what I call those weird leagues where passing TDs are worth 4 points: a TD is a TD. They should all be worth 6 points.) because Cam could be worth a lot more. But if he throws 20 and runs in 10, and luck throws 2 a game for 32 by the end of the season, what's the difference? Sure, the rushing yards will be a bonus but Luck should dominate a hapless Raiders squad while Cam struggles against one of the best defenses in the league. Edge: Cho
WR: Cobb, Garcon, and Welker all have the potential to be better than last year. Cobb gets to be the most targeted player by Rodgers, Garcon could have a healthy RG3 and be healthy himself, and Welker went from Brady to a better QB in Manning (no bias here...). As much as I love the Colts, T.Y. Hilton doesn't belong in a conversation with these other WRs. Julio will catch 150/2, but all of Cho's receivers should break 100 and combing for 3+ TDs. Edge: Cho
RB: 4 powerful, in-between-the-tackles runners are shared between the two squads. There's some serious talent here but there's also tons of injury concerns. Although this is the closest matchup, Foster and Ridley get to play two of the worst teams in the league. Their defenses aren't bad, but they'll get plenty of garbage time runs to pad their yardage totals. Edge: Cho
TE: Brandon Myers was the most targeted TE last year on the Raiders. Yes, the Raiders. This year, he plays with Eli, who threw to Bennett so much, he became a legitimate fantasy option. With Andre Brown out, Eli will be looking for big targets to throw to in the end zone. Can somebody say GAMECHANGER? Edge: Cho
K/DEF: Although Seattle might have the best defense in the league, they've been awful away from home. And I never like it when a player has one of their key players (in this case, QB) playing against the defense they are starting. This can work on the rare occasion (e.g. the QB throws 500/4 TDs and 4 picks and all the picks are returned for TDs) but they usually end up cancelling each other out. Biggie's not winning this matchup by hedging his bets. Edge: Cho

Winner: Cho
A clean sweep! Although Cho wins every category, don't expect the scoreline to reflect the dominance. I believe the final score will be a single digit spread.

Ben There Raped That (Paul) vs. Orangevodjuiceka (Dan Park):

QB: Drew Brees and Sean Payton might be homosexual lovers based on how much Brees mentioned that he missed Payton. Although the Bible does not condone this, for fantasy purposes, it's a match made in heaven. Although Atlanta was the team that stopped Brees' TD streak, I think he'll put up unmatchable numbers this week against a porous Atlanta secondary. 24.88 projected points is high but with a healthy Jimmy Graham and his brilliant coach back, he's my GAMECHANGER. Edge: Dan
WR: 3 legit number-one options vs. an injury prone slot receiver, the third option in his offense, and a guy who has never caught more than 44 balls in a year from the rapist. I think if you have Megatron, it's pretty tough to lose any WR matchup. If you have Cruz and Wayne to back him up, game over. Edge: Dan
RB: On the other hand, Dan's RBs are awful. I think I could be his RB2 and he wouldn't notice the difference. Steven Jackson plays against a defense where the arguably best player (Vilma) will be missing from the middle. The real question is, will Dan ever win a RB matchup? Edge: Paul
TE: High scoring game - Vilma + Ryan + Julio/Roddy stealing double teams - Will Smith who is also out for injuries + Payton and Smith trying to set the record for most plays run in 60 minutes = Big game for Tony. Edge: Dan
K/DEF: Cleveland might have been the defensive steal of the draft. They have a sick corner in Haden, some big offseason acquisitions in key spots (e.g. Paul Kruger from the defending champs), Trent Richardson to kill the clock, and the coolest black name since Ladainian in D'Qwell Jackson. Green Bay showed last year they had no answer for the read-option. Was 8 months enough time? Funny that the last opponent they saw last year is the first one they'll see this year. Good luck at Candlestick Park. Edge: Paul

Winner: Dan
Dan ekes out a close one as Megatron and Brees get Dan started on the right foot for this season. Now imagine if Brees and Megatron were actually on one team...

Optimus Prime-time (Simon) vs. The Powerhouse (Nelson):
QB: As the two best QBs of their generations go head-to-head, they must each face a familiar, challenging foe. Rodgers' last two games against SF were forgettable, averaging under 300 yards with just 2 TDs to 1 INT. Those aren't bad numbers for Sanchez or Gabbert, but you expect more from the best QB alive. As for Peyton, Baltimore has dashed his dreams multiple times. Even during the season where he set a then NFL record with 49 TDs, Baltimore was able to keep him under 250 yards and limit his scoring to just 1 TD. Edge: Even
WR: Simon's three receivers are proven vets that are all number one options on their teams. The biggest problem for each of them is that they don't have a great QB or a legitimate 2nd option to take away some of the pressure. Meanwhile, Larry Fitz has the best QB he's had since Kurt Warner and Decker should have a monster season with Manning back in form. Edge: Nelson
RB: As mentioned in the draft review, McFadden could be the biggest boom or bust this season depending on many factors like his health and the team's success. But with CJ2K getting 2 guards to clear some running lanes, I believe he can legitimately be called CJ2K again, maybe not just with rushing yards, but with total yards from scrimmage. He'll start this season off right against a Pittsuburgh team that isn't as opposing as it was in past years. Chris Johnson will be a GAMECHANGER. Edge: Simon
TE: This is a true test of white vs. black. One is a sure-handed, slow, safety net for his QB while the other is freakishly fast for his size, ridiculously strong, and should be the number one option now that Crabtree is hurt. Slow and steady or Risk and reward? Edge: Even
K/DEF: The Patriots should destroy any QB that comes out for the Bills. The Bucs, the new home of Revis Island, should make it interesting against his old team, but as bad as Sanchez is, Manuel and Tuel have no idea what's in store for them. I almost gave Leg-atron the GAMECHANGER tag but I don't think I can do that to a kicker. Edge: Nelson

Winner: Nelson
I hate writing about my own team.

Funky Fresh (David Yim) vs. Kaep'n Crunch (Jon Lee, formerly known as Donkey Ndamukong, and before that, J's):
QB: A battle of the first-year sensations from last year takes shape in fantasy as well. Although Kaep did destroy the Packers last year, I believe Wilson will have a better Sunday. The Panthers have a decent front seven but their secondary might be the worst in the NFL. Russell Wilson's legs might be contained by Kuechly, but I won't be surprised to see him throw 400+ yards. Edge: David
WR: The WRs of these two teams mirror each other pretty nicely. Thomas and Andre are both athletic specimens that act as their teams number 1 option. Torrey Smith and Nicks are both excellent at finding a way into the end zone in different ways (Smith with speed, Nicks with size). James Jones and Tavon should both be 3rd options in their receiving game but both have the ability to score 20+ on any given Sunday. I would give the edge to David due to Demaryius, but I think Tavon's going to touch the ball enough times to score, which should give him enough points to be a GAMECHANGER. Edge: Even
RB: Wow. These are some heavy hitters. At one point in the past 5 years, all 4 of these running backs were a projected top 5 pick; arguably top 3. AP should destroy the Lions defense, but Rice should touch the ball plenty of times against a weak Denver LB crew that lost Dumervil and Miller. MJD looks to return to form as the league's rushing leader after a year off while Gore looks to take some pressure off of Kaep in the read-option game. I never thought AP would not win a RB matchup but this one is too close to call. Edge: Even
TE: Both teams use 2 roster spots on washed up TEs that have "potential" to be great this year. I'm not buying it. They're all going to suck. Edge: Even
K/DEF: San Francisco should be one of the best defenses this year with a couple of key additions, but they do have to face the best QB in the league. Meanwhile, St. Louis is an underrated defense playing an overrated Carson Palmer. Although I believe Matt Bryant will be kicking the ball more times than Akers in a high scoring affair, they'll mostly be PATs. I have to believe that Akers will make a few 50 yarders to boost Jon's score. Edge: Jon

Winner: Tie!
The league's voting bears out that this will be a close one. There's some options that are being left on the bench that could change the outcome of this game as well (DeAngelo and Richardson to name two). Although it's almost impossible because we use fractional points, I'm going to call it a tie. If it's within 5 points, I'll consider myself a genius. If they actually tie, I will be seeing if I have the gift of prophecy.

Everybody but Cho is doing pick'ems so don't forget to vote.

I can't believe football is only a day away!!

Good luck to all!

Simon